US Energy Security
Proven, producing oil reserves in the United States increased 16% year on year (2020-2021) to 44.4 billion barrels, according to the EIA. Almost all of those reserve increases were "reported" by tight oil companies themselves via internal audits. Because of decline rates most of those reported reserves in 2021 are already depleted. The next update on US oil reserves will not occur until December 2023.
In 2022 the US consumed 7.4 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate (EIA), meaning our proven, producing reserves to consumption ratio, if you trust reserve reporting at all, is only 6 years. US tight oil proven, developed reserves to production ratios are a little north of 3 years.
On March 26th the EIA reported US crude oil inventories were 13% below the five year average.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, America's emergency stash of oil, our oil 'savings account,' has been drained to a 40 year low. There are no plans to replace the 270 MM BO that has been taken from it the past 14 months.
Our country is now exporting over 50% of its total shale oil production to foreign countries... over 1.5 billion barrels per year !
The US is the largest crude oil consuming nation in the world by a significant margin, has only has 4% of the worlds proven reserves, yet produces more than any other country in the world, mostly for exports:
For anyone that buys the propaganda about how US oil exports to foreign countries helps reduce the price of gasoline in Pittsburg, or enhances America's long term energy security, in January 2023 our nation exported more crude oil to China than we did the United Kingdom (EIA). Of our five biggest tight oil importers only Canada and the UK have an actual military presence that could help in the US in time of need.
Russia, Iran, the KSA and the rest of Middle East are now all in alignment with each other to supply China with very long term oil supplies. China essentially has sewed up the Eastern Hemisphere's entire oil supply.
The Saudi's animosity towards the US and the Biden Administration has reached epic proportions and on April 2 the KSA announced a shocking 1.0 MM BOPD decrease in OPEC production, an intentional boost to Russian oil revenue and an intentional message to the White House about who's the world's true oil boss.
"China now has effective control of two out of three top oil crude oil exporters – Russia and Saudi Arabia (with the other being the U.S, itself). In addition, China, via Saudi Arabia’s leadership position in OPEC, has considerable influence over that organization's oil as well." Bloomberg
In the West, Canada has reduced its oil exports significantly, in large part due to the canceling of Keystone Pipeline, Mexico is set to stop all exports by 2024 and the US has sanctioned vast Venezuelan oil potential and won't allow it to export.
The only venue for oil production growth in the US, indeed the entire world the past 14 years has been shale oil and it declines 70-90% the first 32 months of production life. Two of America's most important shale oil basins are in obvious states of depletion and well productivity in the Permian Basin is declining at about the same exponential rate that water to oil ratios, and gas to oil ratios, are increasing. Every major tight oil player in the Permian Basin is warning Americans that its oil production is going down.
Nobody is even paying attention.