For the American industrial complex that requires natural gas to produce goods and services our nation needs, and for the average American citizen relying on natural gas to keep warm, it is going to be a very long, cold, expensive winter. Most residential buyers in the northeast will pay over $25/MCF for natural gas this year.
For two decades the American public has been spoon fed rhetoric about "unlimited shale resources," that we "no longer have to worry about conserving hydrocarbons," that America will be "energy independent" and that there is so much shale oil and gas in America we can export it all over the world to improve foreign policy and globalize America's new found shale wealth to the betterment of all mankind.
It was all a bunch of hooey. $79 crude oil, $4 gasoline and $6.50 per MMBTU natural gas proves that.
The shale industry will blame politics, investors demanding returns (the nerve!), Wall Street, a little bug that looks like a dog toy; whatever. The fact is the stuff is expensive to get out of the ground, declines like a ship anchor dropped at sea and is marginally profitable, at best. That's the nature of the stuff; why lie about it's long term sustainability over and over again?
So, does exporting 15-18 BCFPD of natural gas to Canada and Mexico by pipe and whomever else in the world by LNG, cause scarcity concerns in OUR country, enough to lead to higher prices for the average consumer?
Sure it does.
Are current (10.2.21) temperatures in Antarctica a precursor to the what winter might be like this year in North America 2021-2022? Maybe. Are we ready?
No. In ground gas storage is historically very low this year, for this time of year.
In the mean time, LNG exports are at an all time high.
American oil and natural gas needs to STAY in America. Its our savings account, our energy security against a very unknown future.
Why at $6.50 MMBTU gas at HH are drilling permits so low in the Appalachian Basin?
Lets hope it doesn't have anything to do with falling well productivity. Click to enlarge charts, courtesy shaleprofile.com