Please click to enlarge
The internet has made oil analysts and "experts' out of just about everybody. Folks that just five years ago never thought twice about oil economics, decline rates and depletion are all eaten up with it now, like a video game.
Rule 1 to analyzing the oil industry, particularly well economics, is you need to have had lots of working interest in your day and participated in wells out of a personal check book. You know, money out v. money in...and in that exact order. You need to pre-pay AFE's, send it more checks when the drill pipe gets stuck or twists off, and suffer the pains of paying joint interest bills when that month's revenue doesn't cover costs. Throw in wells that don't payout and some dry holes now and then, all with your own money, not other people's money and it will change your entire outlook on the oily life. If you happen to be a big shale oil cheerleader you won't be cheering near as loudly, trust me.
Rule 2 in being an oil analyst is you at least need to know which end of a workover rig to walk to. This is that end.