Who's Got the Better Shale Oil Wells?
THE AVERAGE BAKKEN WELL HAS A MUCH HIGHER EUR THAN THE AVERAGE PERMIAN WELL
The semi-log plot above, with daily versus cumulative oil production, documents clearly that the average Bakken well is much better than the average Permian well.
Based on data, as of summer 2019, it was found that the average Permian well, spanning several vintages, has a EUR (LTO) of about 80% of the average Bakken well.
Even though the average Permian well may come with a higher IP (Initial Production) than the average Bakken well, these came with lower absolute and relative decline rates during the first 20 - 30 months which explains much of the differences in the average well’s EUR between these two plays.
This is a sneak peek into some of the comprehensive work done by Rune Likvern based on actual data from Shaleprofile (that collects the data from the respective state agencies and performs some very good, big data processing).
In Likvern’s work comparisons of the average well by vintage between the Bakken and the Permian are shown. Both Bakken and Permian EURs (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) for the average well by vintage, estimates on developments in R/P ratios (estimated remaining reserves divided by annualized production) and decline rates are considered. Further, an economic analysis (oil/gas prices (@WH) to recover employed capital and to reach a defined return) is used and the Bakken, and Permian (including both sub basins) are defined as separate projects.