Phenomenon

August 22, 2019

 

Please click to enlarge image

 

By the end of 2016 a total of 41,752 horizontal shale, or shaley carbonate wells, had been drilled in five of America's largest shale oil basins, the Bakken, Eagle Ford, DJ, Permian and Powder River of Wyoming. In 2015 those 41,752 shale oil wells had peak oil production of 4.0 MM BOPD.

 

By April of 2019, 40 months later, those same wells had  declined to 1.2 MM BOPD for an average daily production rate of 29 BOPD. Less than 7,000 of those 41,752 oil wells were making over 50 BOPD in April of 2019 and remarkably, 11,500 wells were making below 10 BOPD, were shut-in or already plugged and abandoned. 

 Please click to enlarge image 

 

An estimated 63% of ALL unconventional shale oil wells in America drilled before 2016 now produced less than 30 BOPD, on rod lift.  

 

In the mighty Eagle Ford shale oil play in S. Texas, one of the first in America, fully 59% of wells drilled before 2016 now make less than 25 BOPD

 


Data courtesy shaleprofile.com  and Shale Profile Analytics 

 

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What's happening to the 25 year, long fat tails in decline curve analysis we  were promised by the shale oil industry? To the 1MM BOE EUR's? It's only been a decade and a lot of these wells are approaching economic limits at $50 oil prices.

 

There is a whole lot of bullshit being said these days by the MSM about how America is now the No. 1 oil producer in the world and just "one more step closer to energy independence." Don't buy it. The number of shale oil wells that must now be drilled every year just to replace the previous years decline is staggering. The United State's "dominance" of world oil markets thru exports of light tight oil is an illusion. It's a lie being made for the sake of political gain. We cannot keep hammering sweet spots in just a few counties in our nation's shale oil basins, while wasting its associated gas up flare stacks, and expect this shale oil thing to last much longer. Its 'remarkable' alrighty, shale oil, but its long term future is very much in 'question.' 

 

America needs hydrocarbon policies that are based on factual data. Not dung heap. How these remaining resources are managed, for the long term, is critical to our children's future. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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