Besides supply and demand fundamentals, lots of things can make the price of oil go up and lots of things can make it go down. The US dollar has had a big affect on prices lately: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-25/dollar-crashing-again, folks betting on oil going up are hiding behind every mesquite tree: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Prices-Could-Dive.html and everyone is scared to death that the shale industry cannot keep its credit cards in its purse and is going to dump more LTO on an already overly saturated LTO market:
http://sweetcrudereports.com/2017/12/04/shale-drillers-boost-spending-20-2018/. Corrections are on the way.
More news: DOE jefe, Rick Perry is beside himself with exuberance over the US shale oil phenomena and yesterday at DAVOS he told OPEC and the Russia not to worry too much about American shale oil production increasing, "rising demand will soak it all up." (So, pretty please, keep cutting your production, it helps America grow ours.)
And we love this from Mr. Perry..."Exporting American Oil is the Same as Exporting FREEDOM," https://www.salon.com/2018/01/24/rick-perry-by-exporting-fossil-fuels-the-us-is-exporting-freedom/. "We'll keep exporting the world all the American oil it wants with no strings attached."
Right. When America's oil is gone in a another decade and we're back to begging OPEC for more, we're likely to not feel very "free" then. Wonder where all these abundance boys will be when that happens?
And as to there being "no strings attached," the US shale oil industry is $280 billion dollars in debt and every year it has been in existence it has outspent its revenue by a large margin. As an industry, it has NEVER made a profit. That's a big string. Mr. Perry has clearly had too many lunches with Scott and believes we have 100 years of unconventional oil tucked away in West Texas...enough for everybody, enough to "unleash our hydrocarbon dominance" on the entire world...yahoo !! The drinks are on Texas !
Bourbon and water? Sorry, pardnor; we're plum out of water. We frac'ed it all away exporting light tight oil to China.