Oily Stuff

Hey MB. So glad to hear from you. Texas' power grid has been a topic of discussion since the big freeze in 2021. There are many reasons to question the reliability but a not-so-insignificant consideration is the increased demand on the grid due to a very large increase in population. Lots of folks are moving from, let's say, less favorable states to states such as Texas and immigrating in great numbers. Surely that characterization will upset some people but the numbers don't lie. At any rate, more power is needed and generating capacity has not been able to keep up. Where I live adjacent to Texas, our electricity is supplied by power plants there and we had a significant expense for electricity in February of 2021. Our local cooperative ate the astronomical costs and are billing them back to us over an extended period of time. We did have rolling blackouts during that freeze event and will likely be subject to the same if the Texas grid gets upset going forward. The good news is that wind turbines don't ice up in the summer! I hope that your energy prospects look better and I would look forward to you flushing out how things stand in your neck of the woods beyond what we read in the news over here. Take care and stay cool this summer.

Rod tongs suck and waste a lot of time and money. Unless you're making up high spec rods they are unnecessary. Technology solving a problem that didn't exist. Last rig I had in KS they used frickin rod tongs on 5/8" rods. I about lost it. Told the pusher/operator and the hands that on the next job I'd cater in steaks while I wrenched the rods and tailed them myself. At the end of the job I'd still be $$ ahead. Wrenching rods is a type of art and you let the steel do the work. Some folks never get it. And dang it, you stab the rod with the wrench on it to both guide and lift the rod as necessary. So much monkeying around before you can even make up the rods with the tongs. BTW, I have a Cardwell single drum pole rig with a V8 on the deck that I single hand every now and again so I know of what I speak. Fixin to get it back on a few of my wells likely working solo...and I'm 64.

Thanks MB. We are screwed for sure. As a young man I figured out that sustaining a positive GDP forever was not possible and was a great theory at best. Growth for growth's sake is fraught with peril as what goes up must come down and the higher one is, the harder the impact. In 2008-9 we had the opportunity to soften the blow but we put a band aid on cancer and now the bottom is about to fall out, albeit with help from nefarious characters. The idea that conservation would result in additional economic contraction in the face of the worst inflation in decades is not lost on me. However, we have several scenarios playing out simultaneously all to no good end. While I am not Solomon, it would seem that energy conservation to mitigate both consumer and industrial inflationary pressures would benefit us all in the long run. Generating more funny money debt to burn up finite resources while on the inflationary hamster wheel is not the answer as I see it. Obviously the time to start conserving energy was precisely when we chose to waste energy chasing uptopia. Would our standard of living be lower than today? Yes. Would our quality of life be significantly worse, less comfortable or pleasurable? That is a matter for the individual to measure. The Apostle Paul spoke to being content in need and in surplus. An old axiom here was "waste not; want not". We have wasted much with less to show for it in the grand scheme of things. Mike, I would be interested in your thoughts relative to energy resources and our future based upon your oft repeated observations and opinions. As always, I am here to learn so educate me.

Thanks so much guys and good morning. One reason that I enquired was a somewhat hopeful grasp that things were better than you describe them. I'm no Pollyanna but anomalies do happen. The mention of the reactor operating flat out, while a band aid on cancer, is a blessing I didn't expect to hear about. Perhaps it is not too late for the blind to see that renewables are not the panacea they were sold and plan to rely upon. MB, your assessment and PJs compliment are so very educational but I fear that they stop short of predicting the end game which is bleak. Intermittent energy flows at astronomical prices will destroy not only manufacturing and agriculture but the lack of demand for products and food, due to consumer energy expenses, will spiral in only one direction. In my opinion, only reduced energy consumption will mitigate the problems and provide any hope for a soft landing. That, of course, provides for a protracted recession which I guess is better than full on collapse. Concerning EU gas flows from Russia; it seems to have been an unreliable supply problem for years. While less educated on the subject, I recall many occasions, typically in the winter, where Russia or the USSR would throttle or shut off supply for different reasons and hold all or part of Europe hostage. The increased dependence on renewables and Russian gas was a nightmare waiting to happen. Please keep up the reports and the discussions. Hopefully you all will help change the perspectives of the masses and the trajectory of the situation.

Hey MB. Just curious about your energy circumstances in the light of the egregious circumstances in Europe. We started off in a position of relative energy luxury compared to you guys and our "leaders" told us to buy EVs to cope with high costs. Can't imagine what you face with nuclear going down and oil generation being your backup.

@Montgomery Burns Thanks again MB. I hope that your last paragraph is an accurate estimation. At some point, having the lights and heaters on is more important than fools owning their folly. Gives one time to reshape foolish policies that are still in place yet set aside for the sake of expediency. Hope spring comes to your neighborhood soon.

It would seem, to the uniformed such as myself, that a type of resource nationalization would be in order to protect one's citizens. While not universally true, wind and solar can be installed on both sides of a border. Therefore, the Swedes should not have to starve or freeze because their EU neighbors didn't apply themselves any better that the Swedish government. Just in case you are inclined to pass out regarding "resource nationalism", that is likely a very imprecise term for Swedes first, not government ownership. Don't know how that works. Way back when, like 20 years ago, we had regulated monopolies for electric service because it was essential. When that changed in TX I told my Dad that little old ladies without computers are going to get screwed while the more capable consumers are going to cut a fat hog. Looks like that's not doing to well for MB either. Keep warm MB. Come to think of it, MB, your posts ought too be constantly on bottom of screen crawls on our news networks here. Maybe a few folks would wake up to what is coming...Sweden.

@Montgomery Burns Hey MB. That sounds very familiar. A few presidents ago, our liberal leader got jammed up with high oil, thus gasoline, prices. Mind you, he and his ilk were busy gumming up the US oil business all along. So he reaches out to whichever Saudi Prince was in charge and asked for more oil to decrease prices. At the time I translated from English and it went something like this in my mind..."Prince, would you please take billions out of the Saudi treasury and put it in the US treasury?" Where I grew up they would call that shameless. Thanks for continuing to report "the future" from the watchtower.

Thanks MB. Hopefully more people will follow your posts as the energy transition gaps or vulnerabilities are being mimicked in many other places. You put a face on the problem.

What a difference a few days makes.

MB I am a bit confused. If it is Swedish energy policy that restricts or promotes the type of electricity generation, and likely its location, how is it that southern Sweden should have to compete with international buyers? Also, since that electricity is fungible, why wouldn't all of Sweden have to compete with international buyers? Is all of this an EU thing? As the rest of Europe gets cold outdoors this winter, it looks as though southern Sweden might get extra cold indoors as a result.

Interesting map. Based upon the obvious juxtaposition of 40.91 to 250.59 that pricing looks govt controlled, not driven by specific region considerations. Seen a bit about Greta this past week and, while I understand her frustration with what she considers too slow of a pace of energy transition, this mess should really temper unwise cliff diving into renewables. I wonder if people really have empathy for those who will suffer greatly either without sufficient heat or those having to chose between heat and say food or medicine. Perhaps there is government support for the latter. At the minimum, this year is proving to be a tough one for reduced global emissions for many reasons. Life does not always go as planned. Stay warm MB.

MB It's sometimes had to imagine how the situation can get more absurd. Let us know how that trash burning thing works out. You were/are the canary in the coal mine and a harbinger of things to come in UK, CA and likely many other well intentioned but ideologic-to-a-fault countries and states. The energy transitions are good and necessary over time. However, reasonable people work for transitions while ideologs and pandering politicians drive us off of avoidable cliffs. Thanks again.

MB Sorry to hear that. Perhaps the pain will be sufficient to correct bad thinking and flawed policies of FF and nuclear power removal without "adequate" replacements. It should go without saying but I hope that the toll isn't in death or poverty.

It occurs to me today that the real cost of renewables, thus Just In Time supply, is unpredictable and your report made that abundantly clear. While all of the energy inputs and associated mining, transportation and construction costs are more readily quantified; the costs of failures cannot be predetermined. The UK is in for a world of hurt until that line is repaired. Even then, will they be able to pick up where they left off? Maybe so' likely not. What does that cost look like?

MB There's an article on oilprice.com that notes that Europe is producing about 1GW of wind power out of 24GW of capacity due to low winds, I suspect on average throughout the continent. Missing the mark by 96% is not trivial. I wonder what happens going into winter with lower solar generation and seriously low natural gas storage levels as well? Just curious and maybe I've missed it; do you have any idled coal fired generation in Sweden? That appears to be a universal go to around the world these days in spite of plentiful gas which is being pulled from the green energy transition once again; so I've read in the last week or so.

MB Good points. Where I live in a rural area the power customers are served by an electricity cooperative. Ours has a pretty high fixed cost so that conserving energy doesn't relect anything approaching proportional cost savings for me. Two thoughts: First; is the increasing green energy in our energy mix to placate a tiny sector of the customer base (not by govt mandates) a part of our bad cost structure? Second; is the high fixed cost structure a disincentive to reduce energy consumption which appears to be at crossed purposes with the environmental aims of green energy? Thanks for holding vigil in the watch tower.

MB Been on the road so I haven't checked in. Remember; more government and taxes solve all problems. In response, innovation will produce super slow chargers to circumvent the demand charge issue resulting in the same overall energy use. Consumers will react using planning to minimize the peak use tariff which may be the point of the penalty from the start. The coming winter should be quite the challenge for you and your countrymen. I sincerely look forward to reading how you all have adapted and survived.

Holy cow MB. It just keeps getting better there! Aren't you happy that the folks that make the plans are so much smarter than everyone else? None of what you report should be a surprise to anyone and the rest of the world should see that as a literal cautionary tale; not a one off. In the US, there are reports of two additional huge and significant reservoirs going extremely low. Thus, one of them is about to or has just stopped generating electricity. If I'm not mistaken that's two western hydropower plants now shut down indefinitely and another potentially very, very soon. How long will it take to refill those lakes to have sufficient spare storage to resume power generation? Too bad natural gas power generation is evil. These western reservoirs I've noted here and before, are in desert or arid county. So, in order to generate "renewable" energy, they dumped much of the remaining drinking and irrigation water into the ocean for a miniscule reduction in global CO2 emissions. What are those dependent on that water supposed to do other than feel very noble in their sacrifice likely against their will? Lakes don't suddenly go dry all by themselves so the "planners" had sufficient time to plan for this eventuality albeit at the minor expense to the environment. Yet again, environmentalists and conservationists working at cross purposes. It was always bound to happen but the when was unknown. Best to you and your countrymen.

MB Been thinking about your very last comment and I have a different take. Reality sinks into realists. Environmentalists, who by the way are very good salesmen, are idealists. When you have excess power they care not about negative cash flow because the turbines do so good that there is too much power. Yippee! When the wind doesn't blow resulting in little output there is always the scapegoat of climate change. There is no true and honest analysis. As long as someone else has to pay the bills the wind solution is a utopian victory. And of course, there is always a government, that is taxpayers, to pay the bills as necessary. Stay cool.