Last summer in Sweden we had a "heat" period of 2-3 weeks and this forced us to emergency start one of our nuclear reactors that were idled down before final termination scheduled for end of year 2020 it also forced us to start up our old oil burner plant to prevent massive black outs since our "renewables" where not delivering.
This should perhaps have raised some questions how smart it was to terminate our nuclear reactors without any functioning alternative in place, that is if common sense and not just virtue signaling and "buying" those easy votes were the objective. Some questions on this obvious thing were raised but naw.. we pressed on and now two of the reactors in the plant are permanently closed since last day of 2020. 1/8th of Swedens power supply gone without any viable replacement.
It took about one week into 2021 before the first result of this decision started to show, we had a bit colder weather -10 -> -15 degrees Celsius nothing special for a Swedish winter. Consumer electricity prices hit the highest levels seen in 5 years. We are now in a position where we have lower base load capacity and that will strain our hydro plants even more to cover the gap in the system where our nuclear used to be. This will lead to hydro reservoirs draining during periods of high electricity demand and low rain, basically winter and occasional summer heat period. Witch will lead to substantially higher consumer electricity prices for two reasons.
Hydro reservoirs are draining so this needs to be mitigated somewhat with higher price
Operators of hydro plants no longer have competition from nuclear so they can set prices much higher as a default as we have no other options since renewables are not delivering when needed.
Closing down our nuclear in the name of environment will obviously lead to higher consumer electricity prices and on top of that we will burn more oil. This outcome is hardly a surprise to all of our politicians but we still did it and we will press on down the same patch and close down the few reactors we have left. If you ask a politician what we should do about this problem i can bet you the answer will be "we have to invest in more renewables" more of the same thing that got us in this position and mess.
If summer of 2021 becomes a hot one we are going to use that oil burner plant like we haven't in a long long time.
These virtue signaling policies don't seem to be limited to Sweden it rather seems to be a global pandemic. Looking at Germany, consumer electricity prices have exploded since their Energywende or what they call it project and as i understand their gas consumption and dependency has followed the same path witch seems logical since you have a higher % of wind and solar in your production profile and need to fill all those gaps you have created with something else and in this case gas.
Small update, i guess more people at this point knows how dependent on fossile fuels we are and that wind isnt a fix all energy problems solution. Thats on the positive side.
On the other side, energy prices are now averaging $0.50/kwh for consumers who didnt buy themselves a few years with a locked contract that will have to be renegotiated later on less favourable terms.
Our "emergency backup" the oil burner plant in Karlshamn has been operating continuously for about 3 weeks now, burning 70.000 barrels / hour. They have also started looking for more staff to be able to scale up that output. (Can you even call something you constantly use an emergency reserve?)
I wonder if my fellow swede on POB still thinks everything is ok as long as we are net exporters of energy.
Hi MB.
It's been a hot one this spring through summer in the midcontinent US. As reports and concerns about extreme energy costs abound I wonder about your predicament in Sweden.
Just saw a headline where Norway has or is considering stopping electricity exports. Perhaps the idea of some type of "us first" has borne fruit there while we wait on our leaders here to the sound of crickets.
Hope all is as well as possible and look forward to hearing from you.
By the way, I have no idea how I ended up with a 1/21/21 post as the end of the thread to send this note.
Yesterday spot prices broke a new record i think, its hard to keep track on all the extreme days nowdays. An hourly peak of about $0.70/kwh for consumers and a daily average of $0.30/kwh. It wasn't a special day or anything, will be interesting when we need to consume 25% more as we frequently do during extended periods of heat or cold.
Sentiment for the renewable revolution has really changed lately, now for the first time a majority of the people are against construction of wind mills in the region where they are living. And some regions use their veto against government plans for development of said wind mill farms. I guess it makes those regions less attractive to move to and you do want to attract more tax paying citizens to move in.
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How about harvesting and burning firewood; is that still legal? I'm in West Virginia, US, and really like not being cold!
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Swedish parliament today voted yes on banning extraction of coal, oil and natural gas. Not that we did a lot of extraction of these before but now it will be against the law to do so. No permits will be given.
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Seems Texas have similar issues now as we do. $4000 /mwh..