Last summer in Sweden we had a "heat" period of 2-3 weeks and this forced us to emergency start one of our nuclear reactors that were idled down before final termination scheduled for end of year 2020 it also forced us to start up our old oil burner plant to prevent massive black outs since our "renewables" where not delivering.
This should perhaps have raised some questions how smart it was to terminate our nuclear reactors without any functioning alternative in place, that is if common sense and not just virtue signaling and "buying" those easy votes were the objective. Some questions on this obvious thing were raised but naw.. we pressed on and now two of the reactors in the plant are permanently closed since last day of 2020. 1/8th of Swedens power supply gone without any viable replacement.
It took about one week into 2021 before the first result of this decision started to show, we had a bit colder weather -10 -> -15 degrees Celsius nothing special for a Swedish winter. Consumer electricity prices hit the highest levels seen in 5 years. We are now in a position where we have lower base load capacity and that will strain our hydro plants even more to cover the gap in the system where our nuclear used to be. This will lead to hydro reservoirs draining during periods of high electricity demand and low rain, basically winter and occasional summer heat period. Witch will lead to substantially higher consumer electricity prices for two reasons.
Hydro reservoirs are draining so this needs to be mitigated somewhat with higher price
Operators of hydro plants no longer have competition from nuclear so they can set prices much higher as a default as we have no other options since renewables are not delivering when needed.
Closing down our nuclear in the name of environment will obviously lead to higher consumer electricity prices and on top of that we will burn more oil. This outcome is hardly a surprise to all of our politicians but we still did it and we will press on down the same patch and close down the few reactors we have left. If you ask a politician what we should do about this problem i can bet you the answer will be "we have to invest in more renewables" more of the same thing that got us in this position and mess.
If summer of 2021 becomes a hot one we are going to use that oil burner plant like we haven't in a long long time.
These virtue signaling policies don't seem to be limited to Sweden it rather seems to be a global pandemic. Looking at Germany, consumer electricity prices have exploded since their Energywende or what they call it project and as i understand their gas consumption and dependency has followed the same path witch seems logical since you have a higher % of wind and solar in your production profile and need to fill all those gaps you have created with something else and in this case gas.
This is very, very interesting, Baggen; thank you for sharing. Its a little reassuring (just kidding) that other countries throughout the world seem to suffer with the same misaligned energy policies we do in this country, though we seem to do it far better, or worse, than others.
Thank you again.
Yes it seems this is how its getting done on a global scale, Sweden is actually moving backwards..
I think it ties in towards your main point that we should use what we have left responsible and conserve it to enable us to make a transition when we actually have something else in place.. but naw.. this will be more exciting for sure.
I thought nuclear was a carbon-neutral power source... compared to fuel oil.
It is, thats whats makes this so brilliant. Consuming more oil in the name of the environment and if you point out the obvious flaw in where it is taking us you will not have to wait long before you are compared to that fellow in Germany. Its religion not common sense.
We did decide to terminate our nuclear power in a traditional Swedish democratic voting event, 3 different alternatives to vote on, all 3 was "termination of nuclear" just with different time schedules. In a surprise outcome "termination of nuclear" won and the people had decided the future of nuclear in Sweden.
It recently became a little embarrassing when it turned out the same government owned power company that is now terminating reactors in Sweden are simultaneously building new nuclear powerplants in Lituania, not that far from Sweden at all.
Luckily responsible ministers over the government controlled company where not aware at all and knew nothing about the stuff they are responsible ministers of. So one must assume a government controlled power company is building nuclear reactors in neighboring countries without a direct government and minister approval i guess... right..
Responsible ministers that knew nothing referred the questions to the government controlled company they were responsible for as they knew nothing, and there our government controlled "free press" left the trail. No one responsible, no one to blame and its a new week now. Life moves on in Sweden.
So small update to energy situation in Sweden.
Temperatures have dropped somewhat and we are now at about -20 degrees Celsius, again nothing special for a Swedish winter quite common.
Average electricity prices so far are about double 2021 compared to same period of 2020 (2020 was an exceptional warm winter though)
Currently there is not much wind, as is common when it gets colder and our windmills are producing at 5% of capacity so we are forced to import now after terminating two reactors. At the moment we are importing about 900MW from Denmark and Germany (coal and gas generated)
Our oil burner plant has received the marching order and is now put on alert to be able to idle up within 2 hours if "an emergency" happens. I guess emergency in this case will be if we cant import enough of coal generated power from Denmark or Germany to cover needs we will supplement it with burning our own oil.
Temperatures looks to be dropping by a few more degrees towards the weekend according to forecast.
What we need now is more EVs, that should improve things.
After looking at production figures for our nuclear reactors from before year end up until to days date i am pretty sure we are now running our remaining reactors harder (probably full blast) then what we did before terminating one at year end. I have no idea if that poses more risk or not but it looks a bit desperate and could definitely have been avoided.
I just paid my January energy/heating bill and got the notification from the bank on my phone about an unusual large expense to my account. I wish Nick from POB could be here holding my hand while he explained to me it was just a bad dream.
Can't imagine what a doubling in electric cost would do to our population. Many here are struggling today. The 'sheeple' need to wise up and look at the real consequences of green power, not just the tripe fed to them by media.
Gentlemen,
I posted a comment last spring about ethanol production and hand sanitizer that reflected these very sentiments. Loss of population now is real and losses at some theoretical time in the future are secondary. When the RFS was increased in the US maybe a dozen years ago, corn prices spiked. I never read or heard about the human cost to the very poor around the world who could no longer afford their food or the food for their protein sources. The power situation is exactly the same, juxtaposing heat or transportation cost with food, medicine, education...not just vacation or discretionary costs.
My argument is not about whether or not transitions need to occur as I'm not that wise. Rather, my argument regards the timing of the changes and collateral damage. Seems I recall the transition to zero emissions or what not being likened to Kennedy's challenge to get to the moon at a time certain. That is a bad comparison because our space program didn't change existential costs to the general population. A good or proper transition in my opinion should be smooth and not a series of stair steps.
There will be many, many more thousands of people who get sticker shock when they open power bills going forward and blaming big oil isn't going to make those bills go away. Oh yeah, then there's the next months bill already accruing.
Thanks for the realistic discussion of current realities.
I think reality needs to get more absurd before people starts to wake up and questioning the path we have selected. Just look at the current situation of the new political religion and the results we have so far.
Norway with its unique position, wealthy beyond belief, small population that is not growing fast and good access to hydro power and yet the results are minimal to non existing.
Sweden: Moving backwards and spending a lot of money we dont really have doing so.
Germany: Have spent an insane amount so far and will spend even more just to become even more reliable on gas and have consumer energy prices exploding.
I do think we need transition or rather im sure of it for the very simple reason that we are running out of oil and gas. Its not like we are drilling unprofitable shale because its so great, its because its the best stuff we have left and that should be a scary wake up call to a lot of people.
But i believe we are putting all our eggs in one basket for the wrong reason and it will cost us all dearly. I also believe the discussion in general is conducted with the wrong scope using environment as the necessity to change. Yes that might be the case, but why even go into that part and side track the discussion? Why not simply start the narrative with "oil is running out and we need transition" and have the discussion and planing focus on a viable transition and alternative if there even exists such an option.
Early this morning our last resort oil power plant went from emergency standby into production, who could have suspected..
Good article in Swedish i hope you can use translate and get something out from it: https://www.fplus.se/kraftverkschefen-da-slocknar-sverige-rakna-med-akuta-elkriser-framover/a/GaBk3q
Some of the points from the article is that we now have an emergency situation at 25.000MW usage where we have to have our last resort the oil plant on 2h emergency standby. The plant can produce maximum about 500MW, the problem is that we normally have peaks of 27.000MW usage in Sweden and now we have an emergency situation at 25.000...
As of right now major companies have been forced to curtail production and its not far fetched rather a question about time and or luck when what used to be a front runner industrial country in Europe needs to start denying grid/power service to companies and population in rolling blackouts. Perhaps not this year but it will come if no major change is made in the direction we are going.
Meanwhile the energy spokes person of the environmental party has gone out on twitter and declared there is no energy crisis and there is no high energy prices either... good to know perhaps i can get my last bill credited and perhaps we are running our oil burner as we speak just for fun.
Energy prices hit 4-5 times normal rates earlier this week and stock market size industries are forced to cut production, nothing here to see move on.
Do you remember when natural gas was touted as the bridge fuel to renewables? Seems like ancient history but it was fairly recent and now gas is shunned. The baby has been thrown out with the bathwater at great expense, much of which will be collateral damage. You can bet that the powers that be will spin the story to cover the effects of all or nothing policies.
Nationalized government controlled or "free media" as we like to label it went out and urged the population to not use vacuum cleaners during the weekend and on Monday in an effort to save energy.
No criticism was offered against the government or what brought us into this position. đ
Seems there are similar problems in your backyard now also and perhaps this will open some eyes on the issue with relying mainly on wind power in a severe cold.
Your timing is impeccable!
My family is strung out along the Texas Gulf coast and struggling as I write this. A moment ago I hit send in an email chain with siblings in which I minimized my problems during 14 days of subfreezing temps, farm heat loss and potential water loss. These things I'm prepared for and can handle. What the citizens or voters in the cities will experience is just a shame and they cannot possibly prepare enough. In the emails I conveyed your experiences that you've passed along as cautionary tales. Additionally, I went on to enlighten on the green myth that is Norway and EVs and carbon neutrality.
The idea that all electric at all cost all at once, time certain for all of the diverse scenarios on the planet, is absurd. While Texas isn't Norway yet with already existing overwhelming but unreliable renewables and EVs, it is obvious that such stories you recount are cautionary tales only to the wise. The rub here is that necessity for wisdom to make such tales have any value.
Please keep beating the drum as the man in the watchtower. Perhaps you will drown out the celebrity experts' gibberish as their batteries die.
Thanks, i hope you and your family is alright and that goes for all the rest also suffering in this situation. I guess fueling or owning an EV in Texas now aint to much fun.
I had a bit of a personal situation here also with my heating system breaking down, water radiators, one of the tanks froze and a valve got ejected from its fitting draining the system of water onto the floor.. i got lucky with the position of the issue though. Irony of the thing is that the repair bill will cheaper then my monthly energy/heat bills currently are. đ
Do the wells and pipelines freeze off there in Texas? It's a real issue in Appalachia because of the steep terrain. Liquids load up in the 'valleys' and often freeze. With it relatively flat there does this still happen?
Hi and thanks for the engagement. Still in a loop with the burdened family down south.
There was an article written last week I believe reporting at least two system freeze ups. Mike is far and away the expert on Texas.
As for terrain and freezing I believe that once the elevation changes more than the diameter of the pipe that you have effectively a plumbing P Trap. With greater elevation changes/reversals the sheer pressure drop from more hydrostatic head and/or gas surging is more problematic.
A significant issue is hydrate formation due to pressure drop/gas expansion and the low temperatures. That is a typical issue at the wellhead and meter run in the winter so I would extend the problem in atypical events to the greater systems.
I would ask Mike, but he's probably out with a torch fixing frozen wells.... I understand the spot prices soared the last few days.
Yes, Paul; that is pretty much what I have been doing for the past 2 days. The oil and natural gas industry in Texas is a train wreck right now and it is going to take weeks, even months for it to get back on its feet. Please see this mornings Texas Update post on OSB and remember all that lovely gas in Texas we like to waste into the atmosphere.
Worse, people are cold, and suffering. We have no experience in dealing with this kind of weather. We weren't made for it in Texas.
I hear it's not near over; bet those flaring varmints wish they could monetize that gas they pissed away. At today's spot prices, they could have easily afforded a turbine to make electricity and sell into the grid.
Latest on the Swedish power situation, one party has now suddenly for some reason figured out terminating our nuclear reactors might not have been the brightest idea and are now publicly announcing they would like to restart it.
This is of course nothing but the usual vote fishing but now targeting the people at the other end of the spectrum of the "greens", i guess that might be me then. Thing is since the reactor has been given a date of termination and now actually is powered down its against the law to restart it (brilliant). We would need to change our law to be able to do so and that is ofc a lengthy process that this party is aware of it will not happen. So fishing for votes without any real intent for change.
Also the green party took no blame or responsibility of the current situation (surprise) but now claims its a scandal that our last resort backup system is an oil burner and not "renewables".. I dont know how they even intend to get the logic together on that one. I guess as a backup to failing wind we should have... more wind or perhaps solar during Swedish winter and nobody should ask any negative questions about that and be a party pooper.
In Swedish but hopefully you can browser translate and get the gist of it.
The charts should make somewhat sense anyway and they are basically confirming the obvious issues we have. Wind is mainly producing when prices are low (low demand) and as we add more of it this situation will only get worse demanding ever increased subsidizes as wind will push revenues down for wind when its windy and increase prices when its not able to capitalize. Author actually points to the fact that we so far in this adventure has substidized other countries energy consumption with about $5 billion and increasing.
$5 billion probably buys a nuclear plant or two.
This also highlights the hydro plants and what will happen in our not to distant future. When wind grows to an even larger portion and we have no more nuclear, the owners of the hydro will bleed the population dry as they will be only game on town on non windy days.
This reminds me of a poster on POB constantly talking about how cheap renewables are in what used to be the oil forum. Cheap for whom exactly not for the consumers in future Sweden at least. I think its a good example of staring on a tree with a microscope and failing to see the forest or in this case the future.
Oilprice.com also had an article today how solar in Sahara would actually contribute to global warming.. better put the head dÀin the sand and ignore that one i guess.
Thank you for that great article and the light that it sheds on both the realities and complexities of the renewable future. The fly in the ointment is large scale storage, usually battery storage, which is always touted as reality when it has not been built, tested, utilized and evaluated over time, to the best of my knowledge. Even taking storage as a given, many side effects remain.
As you might be aware, politicians and much of the public have ignored or discounted Sweden's response to covid 19 and the positive results. I would argue that when it comes to renewables, a similar consideration of the decades long experience in your county will occur. Ideologs embrace the mantra that the ends justify the means. Critics would say one should not let facts get in the way.
Thank you!
Yes this storage issue is seldom addressed and if it is in an unrealistic manner, imagine when we in Sweden has terminated all of our nuclear power and further built out our wind. All that is needed in that situation is a couple of weeks worth of heat wave during summer and our hydro will be drained fast and wont even be able to cope with daily demand, on top of that wind is not going to produce since it wont be windy. So what is needed is a battery that can power an entire nation for weeks probably months and be recharged fast also its just not feasible. Winter will be even worse.
"a similar consideration of the decades long experience in your county will occur. Ideologs embrace the mantra that the ends justify the means"
In this case the ends of it will be higher consumer electricity prices, blackouts, and increased use of oil just to mention a few of the ends. In Sweden its not as important what actually works or using common sense now days, its more important who said it and if the "intention" was good. Virtue signaling. That is why we will press on down this road even if the result is directly contra productive in every way intended. That is also why the solution to any issues on the road ahead will prompt more of the same that got us there.
Im not a huge fan of our main stream media / government propaganda channels and i havent tuned in for more then 15 years, cant say i feel i have missed much. However i missed one small detail about this at the same time when the population of what used to be the pinnacle of industrialized Europe was asked to not use their vacuum cleaners we were apparently also asked to not heat our food but eat it cold for a few weeks when situation was most dire.