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The Future of American Shale According To the EIA
"Although there is no doubt that the U.S. can produce substantial amounts of shale gas and tight oil over the short- and medium-term, unrealistic long-term forecasts are a disservice to planning a viable long-term energy strategy. The best-case scenario to meet the EIA AEO2019 reference case forecast requires drilling 1,451,771 wells at a cost of $9.5 trillion over the 2017-2050 period." David Hughes; Post Carbon Institute
Try and remember, please, the US upstream shale oil industry, public and private, has drilled 85,000 wells over the past decade and is still over $300 billion in long term debt. In other words, it hasn't even paid for what it's already drilled...yet.
For the EIA's estimates to be accurate it will have to drill 525,832 MORE shale oil wells
costing $4.45 trillion dollars and most of that, by the very nature of shale oil decline and low return on investment, will also
have be borrowed or raised, a second time, thru dumb private investment.
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